TY - JOUR AU - Xu，惠玉AU - Feng，郭双AU - Wei，袁au - Feng, AU - Yang, Rui AU - Wang, Liying AU - Zhang, Hongxia AU - Li, Rong AU - Qiao, Jie PY - 2020 DA - 20/4/16 TI -利用人绒毛膜促性腺激素(hCG)水平预测异位妊娠及辅助生殖治疗妇女不孕的主要原因:回顾性观察队列研究JO - JMIR Med Inform SP - e17366 VL - 8 IS - 4kw - β-hCG KW -异位妊娠KW -宫内妊娠KW -生化妊娠KW - IVF/ICSI-ET AB -背景:异位妊娠(EP)是辅助生殖技术(ART)的严重并发症。然而，目前还没有公认的数学模型来预测ART人群中的EP。目的:本研究的目的是建立一个模型，以适应EP风险较高的女性的治疗。方法:从2015年12月至2016年7月，我们回顾性地纳入了1703名新鲜胚胎移植后第21天(hCG21)血清人绒毛膜促性腺激素(hCG)水平阳性的妇女。采用多变量多项logistic回归预测EP、宫内妊娠(IUP)和生化妊娠(BCP)。结果:纳入最终预测模型的变量为(hCG21、hCG21/hCG14比值、不孕主要原因)。在模型评估过程中，训练集IUP、EP和BCP的受试者工作曲线下面积分别为0.978、0.962和0.999，验证集的受试者工作曲线下面积分别为0.963、0.942和0.996。训练集和验证集的误分类率分别为0.038和0.045。我们的模型将整个体外受精/胞浆内精子注射-胚胎移植人群分为四组:一是低风险EP组，EP发生率为0.52% (0.23%-1.03%); second, a predicted BCP group, with incidence of EP of 5.79% (1.21%-15.95%); third, a predicted undetermined group, with incidence of EP of 28.32% (21.10%-35.53%), and fourth, a predicted high-risk EP group, with incidence of EP of 64.11% (47.22%-78.81%). Conclusions: We have established a model to sort the women undergoing ART into four groups according to their incidence of EP in order to reduce the medical resources spent on women with low-risk EP and provide targeted tailor-made treatment for women with a higher risk of EP. SN - 2291-9694 UR - http://medinform.www.mybigtv.com/2020/4/e17366/ UR - https://doi.org/10.2196/17366 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32297865 DO - 10.2196/17366 ID - info:doi/10.2196/17366 ER -