%0期刊文章%@ 2369-2960 %I JMIR出版物%V 8% 卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析N 11% P e35785% T 1990 - 2019年中国老年人HIV / AIDS死亡率变化规律:年龄-时期-队列分析%A任宁军%A李元生%A万元生%A王正伟%A张若兰%A扎卡文鑫%A扎卡Emmanuel Enoch %A张俊慧%A李爱玲%A樊爱玲+西南医科大学公共卫生学院，泸州市龙马潭区香林路一段1号，64600,86 8303175813，fansong@swmu.edu.cn %K HIV %K艾滋病%K老龄化%K死亡率%K趋势%K年龄-时期-队列模型%K APC %D 2022 %7 17.11.2022 %9原始论文%J JMIR公共卫生监测%G英文%X背景:随着抗逆转录病毒治疗效果的提高和人口结构的变化，中国老年艾滋病患者的问题日益严峻，忽视他们的感染可能会造成更严重的社会问题，加剧控制艾滋病传播的难度，增加死亡风险。目的:研究1990 - 2019年中国不同年龄、不同时期、不同队列人群死亡率的变化趋势，揭示年龄、不同时期、不同队列与艾滋病病毒负担之间的关系，为预防弱势目标人群艾滋病病毒相关死亡的资源配置提供指导。方法:我们从全球疾病负担中提取了艾滋病毒或艾滋病死亡率数据。联合点回归模型用于检测HIV或艾滋病趋势的变化。年龄-时期-队列模型用于探索年龄、时期和队列效应。结果:男女艾滋病毒或艾滋病的年龄标准化死亡率趋势均有所增加，男性从0.50 /105人增加到4.54/105人，女性从0.19 /105人增加到1.43/105人。接合点回归模型显示，男性年龄标准化死亡率的年平均百分比变化为7.0，女性为6.4，呈上升趋势。 The age effect of male HIV or AIDS mortality showed a net increase of 0.59 (–0.21 to 0.38) from the ages 50-79 years. There is a gradual upward trend in the change in risk of death from HIV or AIDS for the period effect among the older population, lowest at ages 50-54 years (–0.80 for male and –0.78 for female individuals) and highest at ages 75-79 years (0.86 for male and 0.69 for female individuals). The variation of cohort effects was complex, but both genders had a nearly consistent tendency; people born in 1920-1929 had the lowest cohort effect, and those born in 1950-1954 had the highest values. Conclusions: Our study showed a marked rise in HIV mortality for both genders in China from 1990 to 2019. Aging is an important issue in current HIV prevention and control. There is an urgent need to promote HIV testing and health education. Our findings will help predict future HIV or AIDS mortality changes and identify age-specific priority populations for intervention. %M 36394944 %R 10.2196/35785 %U https://publichealth.www.mybigtv.com/2022/11/e35785 %U https://doi.org/10.2196/35785 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36394944