%0期刊文章%@ 1438-8871 %I JMIR出版物%V 22%卡塔尔世界杯8强波胆分析 N 11% P e23853 %T系统因素对中国新型COVID-19疾病暴发结果的影响:因子分析研究%A曹自成%唐子成%A陈峰%A陈蔡%A张驰%A郭怡辰%A林瑞珍%A黄志红%A滕志红%A谢毅%A徐婷%A徐玉田%A宋玉田%A吴燕欣%A董峰%A罗培培%A蒋干峰%A邹亚文%A陈华春%A陈耀庆%A孙丽涛%A舒跃龙%A杜向军%+中山大学公共卫生学院(深圳)，广东广州510275，邮编:86 020 83226383，duxj9@mail.sysu.edu.cn %K COVID-19 %K新病例%K增长率%K多维因子%K统计机器学习%D 2020 %7 11.11.2020 %9原始论文%J J医学互联网Res %G英文%X背景:新型COVID-19疾病在全球范围内传播，导致新的大流行。中国政府在疫情早期实施了强有力的干预措施，包括严格的旅行禁令和保持社交距离政策。优先分析影响疫情结果的不同因素对于精确预防和控制传染病非常重要。我们提出了一个解决这一问题的新框架，并将其应用于来自中国的数据。目的:本研究旨在系统识别中国国家层面和城市层面对COVID-19控制的影响因素。方法:收集来自中国343个城市的每日COVID-19病例数据和相关多维数据，包括旅行相关、医疗、社会经济、环境和流感样疾病因素。使用相关性分析和可解释的机器学习算法来评估疫情期间(即2020年1月17日至2月29日)各因素对新病例和COVID-19增长率的定量贡献。结果:影响新冠肺炎疫情在中国传播的因素较多。 Travel-related population movement was the main contributing factor for new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China, and its contributions were as high as 77% and 41%, respectively. There was a clear lag effect for travel-related factors (previous vs current week: new cases, 45% vs 32%; COVID-19 growth rates, 21% vs 20%). Travel from non-Wuhan regions was the single factor with the most significant impact on COVID-19 growth rates (contribution: new cases, 12%; COVID-19 growth rate, 26%), and its contribution could not be ignored. City flow, a measure of outbreak control strength, contributed 16% and 7% to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates, respectively. Socioeconomic factors also played important roles in COVID-19 growth rates in China (contribution, 28%). Other factors, including medical, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, also contributed to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China. Based on our analysis of individual cities, compared to Beijing, population flow from Wuhan and internal flow within Wenzhou were driving factors for increasing the number of new cases in Wenzhou. For Chongqing, the main contributing factor for new cases was population flow from Hubei, beyond Wuhan. The high COVID-19 growth rates in Wenzhou were driven by population-related factors. Conclusions: Many factors contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak outcomes in China. The differential effects of various factors, including specific city-level factors, emphasize the importance of precise, targeted strategies for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak and future infectious disease outbreaks. %M 33098287 %R 10.2196/23853 %U //www.mybigtv.com/2020/11/e23853/ %U https://doi.org/10.2196/23853 %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33098287