@文章{info:doi/10.2196/30144，作者="John, Jari"，标题="建模COVID-19导致的寿命损失、社会经济状况和非药物干预:预测模型的开发"，期刊="JMIRx Med"，年="2022"，月=" 4月"，日="12"，卷="3"，数="2"，页="e30144"，关键词="COVID-19;大流行;社会经济地位;死亡率;药物干预;预测模型;低收入状态;预期寿命;公共卫生;背景:对COVID-19大流行的研究聚焦于健康负担，从而在很大程度上忽视了福利损失对生命的潜在危害。 Objective: This paper develops a model that compares the years of life lost (YLL) due to COVID-19 and the potential YLL due to the socioeconomic consequences of its containment. Methods: It improves on existing estimates by conceptually disentangling YLL due to COVID-19 and socioeconomic status. By reconciling the normative life table approach with socioeconomic differences in life expectancy, it accounts for the fact that people with low socioeconomic status are hit particularly hard by the pandemic. The model also draws on estimates of socioeconomic differences in life expectancy to ascertain potential YLL due to income loss, school closures, and extreme poverty. Results: Tentative results suggest that if only one-tenth of the current socioeconomic damage becomes permanent in the future, it may carry a higher YLL burden than COVID-19 in the more likely pandemic scenarios. The model further suggests that the socioeconomic harm outweighs the disease burden due to COVID-19 more quickly in poorer and more unequal societies. Most urgently, the substantial increase in extreme poverty needs immediate attention. Avoiding a relatively minor number of 4 million unemployed, 1 million extremely poor, and 2 million students with a higher learning loss may save a similar amount of life years as saving 1 million people from dying from COVID-19. Conclusions: Primarily, the results illustrate the urgent need for redistributive policy interventions and global solidarity. In addition, the potentially high YLL burden from income and learning losses raises the burden of proof for the efficacy and necessity of school and business closures in the containment of the pandemic, especially where social safety nets are underdeveloped. ", issn="2563-6316", doi="10.2196/30144", url="https://med.jmirx.org/2022/2/e30144", url="https://doi.org/10.2196/30144", url="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35438949" }